Have I confessed yet that I am crazy enough to have printed out schedules for the Marlins, Cubs, Giants and Padres and pinned them all around the office? No. Well, I got exactly that crazy on Friday morning, and so a goodly portion of my morning now begins with a Talmudic contemplation of each team's remaining games.
Here is where I believe various contending wild card teams are going to fall off the bus and get left behind.
Astros. Sorry to say, after dropping three of five (and very nearly four of five) to the Pirates this weekend, which under other circumstances I could regard as just a little blip, the Astros face St. Louis at Busch Stadium for their next three games. Optimists among you may look to St. Louis's recent losing series against the Dodgers as a sign that the Cardinals are weakening. Listen: The Astros are not the Dodgers.
Astros fall out of contention: September 16. And we have the added honor of being the team against whom St. Louis will clinch the NL Central pennant. Woo fucking hoo.
Padres. First of all, the Padres have only gone 6-4 in six games against the Rockies and three against the Cardinals. Not really dominating baseball. Now they face the Dodgers, Giants and Dodgers before their next games against noncontending Arizona. To paraphrase Cosmo Kramer, in my mind, they're already gone.
Padres fall out of contention: September 16, after getting spanked by the Dodgers at least two games. I'm being generous here.
Marlins. I hate the goddamned Marlins. I really do. They have four against Montreal this week -- and Cubs fans, are you with me on this? Montreal isn't always terrible -- before they face serious competition from the Braves and the surprisingly resilient Phillies. I'm not saying that Florida couldn't take the Braves and the surprisingly resilient Phillies. But I sure as hell don't want them to. And you know? The funny thing is that even though it now looks as though Hurricane Ivan will now possibly miss the entire state of Florida, including the panhandle, the Expos and Marlins are still playing in Chicago.
Marlins fall out of contention: September 25, against Atlanta, and hopefully this isn't just wishful thinking.
Giants. The thing that infuriates me about the Giants is that they have such a soft schedule until the very end of the season. Having lazed around for the last two weeks playing no one but Arizona and Colorado, what do they get in the upcoming week? Milwaukee. Ooh, scary. Plus three against San Diego, whom I think they can take (see above), and three against Houston, which I have noted that I have never known the Astros to do better than 1-5 for the season against the Giants. And the Astros already got their one win back in the opening series of the season. Nonetheless, after that, it's nothing but San Diego and Los Angeles. And I believe in Los Angeles. Go Dodgers.
Giants fall out of contention: September 26.
Cubs. I realize that the conspiracy-minded among you will say that I am jinxing Chicago by saying that I still see them winning the Wild Card, but so be it. I do. Here is what they face for the remainder of the season. Pittsburgh (and I am not ready to say Pittsburgh is tougher than they look just because they took three out of five against Houston this weekend. I am prepared, however, to announce that Houston is not for real. They aren't, people. Accept it). Cincy. Pittsburgh. The goddamned Mets. (Headline in the New York Times yesterday, the very best Mets headline ever: Mets take longer for same result. Today's was "Another day, another disaster.") Cincy. They don't face a contending team until the last three games of the season, against Atlanta. Now I'm not saying that Chicago couldn't fuck this up, because I think only Houston is more qualified to fuck up an easy schedule than Chicago, but really: If they do, maybe they really are cursed.
Cubs fall out of contention: If it doesn't happen by September 19, it's not happening.
...
Don't know if you heard the Astros' radio broadcast yesterday evening, but Alan Ashby's disgust with the sudden reemergence of the suckastic Astros we've seen most of the season was so palpable, so comprehensive, that it made it hard to enjoy the game. Dude, I kept thinking, they're down TWO RUNS against PITTSBURGH. Lighten up, little camper! But no. Oswalt's pitches were too high in the strike zone. Lidge's pitches were too high in the strike zone. Beltran wasn't swinging the bat like he should. Ditto Viz, Bagwell, Berkman, Lamb, etc. Ashby sounded as though he was taking it all real personally.
Cubs Fan reports that her favorite announcer Ron Santo proclaimed the other day that the way his team was playing -- and I'm not doing justice to this quote, but bear with me -- he just went home in the evenings and locked himself in the closet with a bottle of wine, so he wouldn't frighten his dog. I think possibly Ashby should consider getting some wine, or a closet, or a dog.
...
As I was writing this, an email from T. arrived in my inbox.
I'm ok, the Astros' ride has come back down to Earth but there is still hope. It makes me realize I have not only become comfortable but in some self-effacing way, actually prefer the land of mediocrity. I guess at my core this is no real big surprise.
I would argue that T. and I are psychic twins, but I suspect this is how every Astros fan is feeling this morning.