throws like a girl

Cliff Floyd is nobody's fool.

I admit to a chronic inferiority complex about my Astros, especially as far as Salon's estimable King Kaufman is concerned, so I was especially pleased to read this assessment of Jeff Bagwell's HOF credentials in his column today. (Note: Salon will probably make you read some ads in order to see the link.)

Bagwell is probably on the good side of the borderline, a better player than McGriff. He'll be 37 in May, and while he's declining, he's still a pretty good player. Unless he falls off a cliff, he should be a sure thing when he retires in a few years.

... It matters where you play if you're a borderline guy. Bagwell has spent his entire career with the Astros, mostly on contending teams, five times on playoff teams. Houston isn't New York, but in the last decade it has been a big baseball city.

King Kaufman likes me! He really likes me! Plus that is about the nicest thing anyone has said about the Astros all off-season.

Sadly, it seems perfectly plausible that Jeff Bagwell could fall off a cliff this season. If he does, I can only hope that he takes Jose Vizcaino with him.

...

Also, from the latest Peter Gammons:

[Pedro Martinez] brings an attitude, and his teammates will find out that when a Mike Piazza or Cliff Floyd gets plunked, Pedro will plunk right back (and because Pedro throws harder and with more precise accuracy, his retaliatory plunks hurt a lot more).

Who, I wondered, has the temerity to plunk a Mike Piazza or a Cliff Floyd? Who has offended those great sluggers so deeply that Peter Gammons is forecasting retaliatory plunkings months? And then I remembered: Roy Oswalt.

"I don't know the dude's history, so I'm not going to go on the record and say that he hit me on purpose," Floyd said Thursday. "You hope not, because he's one of the elite pitchers in the game.

"I thought about it a little bit last night. I thought of it after he hit me. I started breaking it down. I'm smart enough to realize that he gave me the inside the whole night. But I'm not an idiot, either. I'm not dumb. I know I took him deep."

Oh, New York Mets. You will be my archnemesis yet.

In the words of Nelson Muntz: Ha ha.

The Cubs say they're comfortable with Todd Hollandsworth and Jason Dubois in left field, but another option for them is to sign free agent Jeromy Burnitz to platoon with Dubois, relegating Hollandsworth to backup duty. Burnitz also could spell CF Corey Patterson on occasion. The Cubs are thought to be Burnitz's No. 1 choice ...

From Ken Rosenthal's latest column. Of course, at no point in the article does it say that Burnitz is anywhere at all on Chicago's wish list.

Meanwhile, my Astros signed a LOOGY for $700,000 over the weekend.  He has a career ERA of 2.86! He's the all-time leader in saves by a left-handed pitcher!

Of course, that is most likely because he is as old as God. Which means that he'll fit in just fine inside the Astros clubhouse. Says Matt Galante, whom I'll be holding personally responsible for this:

"The other thing he brings is the veteran presence. He pitches with a lot of guts, a lot of heart and location."

Exactly how much veteran presence does one team need?

Meanwhile, I'm still waiting for my $1.4 million

Roger Clemens will be coming back as the highest paid pitcher in history.

I guess season ticket sales are about to spike.

Cubs Fan observed Pedro Martinez is unlikely to take this usurping of his title of Most Handsomely Compensated Pitcher Ever lying down. (We were both delighted at his statement in the press yesterday: "Sammy [Sosa] told me it would be an honor to join me in New York.") I am hopeful this will be the start of a blood feud with the New York Mets. A baseball team can't have too many vicious rivalries, in my book.

It's good to want things.

So Roger Clemens has asked for a record $22 million in salary arbitration this year.

Is this just some sort of private game wherein Clemens creates a potentially irresistible set of circumstances (the largest pitcher's salary in history!) to trick himself back out of retirement? Or is it just a fancy way to tell the Astros there is nothing they can do to keep him?

Or is it a legitimate offer? Many commentators have pointed out that Clemens may simply be looking back with some regret to the bargain-basement deal he gave the Astros in 2004, which paid only $6.825 million including those attendance incentives. If you average last year's meager salary with this year's proposed outlandish one, Clemens ends up earning $14.41 million per year, which is not exactly unreasonable for an 18-4, Cy Young-winning starter.

And what to make of that number 22? Clemens has this oddball fixation with baseball symbology -- all those K-kids -- and now he requests a salary to match his roster number? I can't shake the feeling that the number means something more to him than way, way more money than anyone has ever gotten to pitch before.

I mean, as if that isn't reason enough in itself.

Potentially, Houston could get stuck with a $22 million pitcher this year, since they're bound to accept the arbitrator's decision. But maybe this is Clemen's way of asking the Astros to make their best offer, knowing that it is more likely the arbitration will go their direction than his.

...

I find myself thinking a lot about Clemens' legacy these days. Sure, he's a shoo-in first-round HOF pick. But Clemens seems increasingly likely to end his career on a bum note. He traded the flashbulbs and ovations of his 2003 season for a shot at bringing a World Series to Houston -- the fact that the team fell jus short of that doesn't really tarnish the moment. But now, it's entirely likely that his career ends here, with this crazy, last-minute cash grab.

You could argue that's a fitting way for him to be remembered, considering his Toronto sojourn and the sponsor's cap he wore to his 300th-win press conference and the Roger Clemens designer bikini or any of the other myriad ways in which Clemens has whored himself out over the years.

What I want is for Clemens to leave the game with a little dignity intact. That seems about as likely as his getting $22 million.

...

Meanwhile, Roy Oswalt has asked for $7.8 million and Lance Berkman for $11 million. I expect the Astros will negotiate deals with both before it comes to a final arbitration decision, but really, those numbers are suddenly looking completely, totally reasonable in comparison.

And then there's this: Tim Redding wants $1.4 million for 2005.

Since there is no salary arbitration mechanism in place for bloggers, throws like a girl hereby makes this public announcement: I would also like $1.4 million for my services in 2005.

It never hurts to ask.

The truth hurts

The theme for the Houston Astros this week seems to be brutal honesty. Commenting on the state of the Astros bullpen, Tim Purpura says:

When you look at the guys that are in (the bullpen), there are certainly some question marks ... There are guys that maybe didn't perform very well or up to expectations. Certainly they're going to get a chance, but we can't go with that group year in and year out.

After the regrettable Beltran negotiations, I am pleased with all this straight talk. On the other hand, it isn't doing anything to allay my sense of dread for 2005. Today on BTF, in the middle of a discussion about the Cubs' quiet offseason, came this unnecessarily gleeful assessment of the Astros' prospects for the coming season:

I'd love to see Burnitz thundering around CF for Houston.  That would be worth a trip to see that circus.

Then someone went on to posit that Houston will likely come in fourth in the NL Central this year, behind the Chicago, St. Louis and Milwaukee. While I acknowledge they have some good young players and I'm sure that throwing off the shackles of oppression will give the 67-94 Brewers a lift this season, that just hurts my feelings, man.

These are dark times.

Exactly what question are you asking if the answer is Jeromy Burnitz?

From today's Chronicle:

"[Burnitz] may not be as good in center field as some of the pure center fielders, but everybody who's seen him patrol center field in Coors is convinced he does at least, if not better than, an adequate job."

Well, you can't argue with that sort of ringing endorsement, really.

...

Aside from my own personal commitment not to root for any more players who don't know that their first names should be spelled J-E-R-E-M-Y, the Astros have not got enough offense in their present lineup to support another light-hitting defensive player. With Everett, Ausmus and the pitcher's spot coming up 7-8-9, you really can't put a career .254/.351/.491 hitter in the sixth spot.

By that same argument, I am not really intrigued by the reports that Mike Cameron wants out of the Mets if he can't play CF. Cameron batted .231/.319/.479 last year, and a quick glance at his numbers indicate that's not really that steep a decline from his career numbers. The shocking thing is that Cameron will be paid $14 million for the next two seasons. This for a player whose best season, in 2001 as a Mariner, is .267/.353/.480.

If that sort of performance is worth $7 million a season in New York, it's no wonder they outbid Houston on Carlos Beltran.

...

Here's my favorite tidbit from Drayton McLane's account of his dealings with Scott Boras.

Several weeks ago, Boras told the Astros they were no longer in contention for Beltran. He said they had failed to reach the seven-year, $112 million threshold that would have gotten them to the next level of bidding.

Boras told McLane at least five teams had reached the magical $112 million mark. McLane's five-year, $75 million offer didn't come close.

"I told Scott we weren't prepared to go past that," McLane recalled.

He suggested the two sides release a joint statement announcing Beltran would be playing elsewhere next season.

Boras didn't seem eager to announce the Astros were out of the running.

...

Boras disputes this version of events, of course, but it's so similar to every other account of the patented Boras negotiating technique that I'm inclined to take it at face value.

Bitter as it is losing Beltran, what stings just as much is that the Astros were willing to be strung along to the very last minute.

 

The day after

So pretty much everyone from the dudes at All-Baseball to the dudes at the Houston Chronicle are in agreement that the Astros can write off the 2005 season, all thanks to Carlos Beltran. Well, him plus Jeff Kent, plus Wade Miller, plus all those sweet prospects (hi, John Buck!) Houston burned through trying to make it to the playoffs last year. I wrote a mournful e-mail to this same effect to my colleague T. today, but T. is made of sterner stuff than I. He pointed out that all these same pundits were dismissing the Cardinals at this same time last year, and that You Never Know. (I refrained from pointing out that while we look just as short as pitching as St. Louis did last winter, we also don't have Pujols, Edmonds and Rolen in our lineup.)

T. still believes. You read it here first.

He also pointed out this interesting aside from one of the many Beltran postmortems:

Arbitration-eligible players Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt are also a priority. Purpura indicated he would like to work out a long-term deal with Berkman, but is still undecided on Oswalt. The Astros may opt to negotiate another one-year deal with the the right-hander.

I found this a little surprising at first, but after all, the Astros still have two years of Roy Oswalt's services before be becomes a free agent. Given his injury history (groin in 2001 and 2003, ribcage -- though to no serious detriment -- in 2004), I guess caution is in order, though I hope the delay doesn't go and make Oswalt feel disrespected or anything.

...

I'm thinking the Astros ticket office must have been expecting a Beltran signing over the weekend, too, because in my mailbox today was an invoice from the Astros to remind me that, through some oversight on my part, I have failed to re-up on my season tickets. They are right; I have. I looked over the details a little sadly; if I buy a package, tickets are $12 each. Buying them a la carte drives the price to $19 each.

I want to go on the record here: My failure to renew is not a lack of faith in next season; I still like the Astros, more or less, even when they lose. But I'm looking for a new job, and I've got my fingers crossed that I won't be spending August in Houston. Or July. Or June, May or April. If I were a full-time believer in jinxes I would go ahead and spend the bucks now; I'd gladly squander $500 to get a decent Midwestern-type job offer.

Say. Do you think it would work?

The War of Northern Aggression

Cubs Fan and I spent New Year's Day curled up on the sofa together watching Jeff Santo's charming This Old Cub, his documentary about his father Ron Santo. I mention this not just so you can all nod reassuringly to yourselves that Love Transcends Baseball Rivalries, but because it was while watching this film that I discovered Cubs Fan was not familiar with the 1969 New York Mets' sobriquet The Miracle Mets. (That's because, of course, it was her beloved Cubs' September collapse that was largely the engine of the New York miracle.) I suggested this was a little like the way the Civil War is more popularly known as The War of Northern Aggression in some parts of the South. History may be written by the winners, but that doesn't mean the losers have to read it.

So anyway, the upshot is that Cubs Fan has a longstanding dislike of the New York Mets, and probably I should too, since they also kept my Astros out of the World Series in 1986. In fact, it used to drive my colleague T. a little crazy each spring when I'd pick the Mets as my choice to win the NL East. "But they got Tom Glavine/Art Howe/Rick Peterson!" I'd protest, and he'd shake his head, and we'd watch those Mets fall to their divisional cellar year after year.

Some days, and today is one of them, it seems like there are as many reasons to dislike the Mets as there are to dislike the Yankees. Right now it's only the memory of that continual 2001-2004 Mets failure that is comforting me, following the news that New York will be signing Carlos Beltran to a seven-year/$118 million contract.
 

No offense to the Mets, really, but I think the karmic price Beltran ought to pay for turning down Houston's perfectly reasonable offer should be irreparably hitching himself to a losing team, a la A-Rod and Texas. Perhaps Beltran is as foolishly optimistic as I am every spring, thinking that the Mets' big-name offseason acquisitions are really, finally, this-year-for-sure going to make a difference. Perhaps he has convinced himself, following the signing of Pedro Martinez and his fragile shoulder, and Kris Benson and his, well, his hot wife, that this is a team destined for glory.

My experience tying my fortunes to the Mets these last four seasons, though, suggests that he would be wrong. And this I must confess: Right now, nothing would make me happier than the prospect of Carlos Beltran, three years down the road, turning to his wife during some dark night of the soul to demand, "Where is the light? What am I in this for?"

...

There are times when I really hate the Atlanta Braves and their predictable, almost robotic excellence. Today is not one of them.

...

So where does this leave my beloved Astros, who got within one game of the World Series just three months ago but who are all of a sudden short on starting pitching, catching prospects, outfielders and offense? Someone pointed out in the last couple of days that Tim Purpura's background is in player development, and as such, he has a better idea of the talent lurking in the Astros farm system than anyone else in the organization. Here's hoping that he can promote the right talented youngsters, or find the best trade prospects in exchange for them. In the meantime, I'm getting ready for Jason Lane in CF, and Orlando Palmeiro in right. God help us all.

He was awake a long time before he remembered that his heart was broken.

I guess it is T-minus-13 on Carlos Beltran now, and maybe it is just because I haven't really been expecting a decision until moments before today's 11PM deadline, and maybe it is because I am hoping that it is the New York Mets' foolish heart that will be broken by Carlos Beltran when he crashes and burns at age 34 instead of mine, but I only moments ago checked the Chronicle home page for the first time today. Sure enough, there is no answer yet.

The Houston writers seem convinced that the Beltran decision will function as some sort of referendum on the Purpura GM-ship but really, I don't know see how you can place any of the responsibility for the Beltran decision on his head. Drayton McLane is most assuredly the person who's calling the shots here -- and further, I can't imagine that any GM in the business gets to decide how to spend that much money. Still, they're already building their case against Purpura: He "undervalued" Jeff Kent by not offering a guaranteed second year (I don't really understand why a player is "undervalued" just because some foolish team is willing to pay more for him -- it seems just as likely that Los Angeles will end up paying a premium for Kent's diminishing production in his 37th and 38th year). He let Wade Miller go. He hasn't convinced Roger Clemens to come out of retirement yet (though he did get him to agree to arbitration, effectively locking him into the Astros organization if he does decide to play another year).

I guess the Astros have not had that much experience with the patented Boras negotiating tactics -- I've tried and failed to locate a list of the Astros and their agents, but offhand, I don't think any of them besides Mr. Beltran are Boras clients. And so it's only natural that Houston, no matter what Beltran decides, will come away from this whole experience looking a little foolish. Why there's a need to assign blame for this foolishness to anyone besides Drayton McLane, however, is beyond me.

As for me, I'm withholding judgment on Tim Purpura until I see whether Wade Miller can still pitch or not. And even then, given the nature of Miller's injury, the decision to let him go is not necessarily a bad one. While McLane's wallet might be wide open for Beltran, signing Berkman and Oswalt to long-term deals means that Purpura doesn't have an extra $1.5 - $2 million to spend on a pitcher who may not be able to pitch next year.

I try to convince myself that I prefer rooting for a team that doesn't have such deep pockets, that I'm more interested in a club that can make smart decisions instead of extravagant ones. Still, there are fewer than six weeks remaining before the start of Spring Training, and right now, we could be looking at an Opening Day outfield of Jason Lane, Orlando Palmeiro and Craig Biggio. And it's hard to see any smart decisions in that.