throws like a girl

There goes the rest of the workday

About 20 minutes ago, I finally got Baseball Prospectus 2005 and immediately turned to the Astros' section, after some brief confusion about why the National League was in front of the American League in the book this year.

The fellows at BPro are kind but firm in their assessment of the Astros' 2005 prospects: "There is almost no chance that the Astros can repeat their '04 success in 2005. ... Still a quality team but they're heavily dependent on some graying talent. When it comes, the collapse won't be pretty, and it isn't far off."

Okay, okay, okay I get the message all right, but at least this year, they have given my boy Roy Oswalt his full due:

The groin problems that plagued [Oswalt] in 2003 were just a memory last year, as he tied for the NL lead in starts and finished third in innings pitched. Through four seasons, his career is a virtual match for Mike Mussina's, except Mussina never took that step forward, staying at his established level for 10 more years. Oswalt could; he has everything it takes to make the same leap Greg Maddux did in 1992 that allowed him to become the best pitcher of the 00s.

I puzzled over that last sentence a little while; did they mean to say that Maddux is going to be the best pitcher of the 00s? From context, I think not. BPro could use one more proofreader, methinks. (Call me! I'm a professional!)

For comparison's sake, this is part of what BPro had to say about Kerry Wood:

The odds are against an established player making a sudden and dramatic improvement, but pitchers don't age in the predictable ways that hitters do; it took Randy Johnson until he was 29 to completely figure things out and Kevin Brown until he was 31.

The question is: Why am I reading descriptions of the Cubs pitching staff before I've even finished the Astros batters? I don't know. Except possibly that I'm afraid of what I'm going to find, once I hit the Ausmus/Bagwell/Biggio entries.

Yep. Brad Ausmus:

With John Buck out of the way and a $3 million salary in '05, he'll be the starter again, but Ausmus may be the worst regular in baseball.

Ouch.

Okay, one more and then I'll quit. Jose Vizcaino:

Pushed into a starting role after Everett's injury, Vizcaino was, predictably, an inadequate solution.

If that's the worst BPro can say about Viz, I am convinced they must have spent a significant part of the offseason in sensitivity training.

If it keeps on raining

Okay, I was going to write about Tim Redding's latest complaints (He says if he doesn't get the no. 5 spot in the starting rotation, he wants to be traded -- I say you and me both, mister), but my colleague T. has proposed a much more entertaining topic.

Say you're the hottest young closer in baseball. What's your theme song?

Former Astro/current Philly Billy Wagner's is, of course, "Enter Sandman." (I suspect there's actually a line in the players' union by-laws which demands that closers pick either "Enter Sandman" or "Hell's Bells" when they assume the position.) Octavio Dotel favored "Danger" by Mystikal. Brad Lidge's is that wacky song about how he's bringing me the pain -- I never have figured out who sings it.

Me? My first choice is "Punch Me Harder" by Superchunk. But if the suits in Marketing make me pick something recognizable, I have to go with "When the Levee Breaks." Crying won't help you, praying won't do you no good. It's just about perfect, and I hereby grant permission to any pitcher reading this page to go ahead and use it, as throws like a girl lacks the necessary velocity for the ninth inning (she is more of the RNOGY type).

Your turn.

Obituary

Condolences to Astros play-by-play guy Milo Hamilton, who lost his wife of 52 years over the weekend. Milo never talked about her nearly as often as he did Drayton McLane's wife Elizabeth "listening in Temple, Texas!" but you got a sense of his deep fondness for her, anyway.

No. 13, baby

Consider this my Jan Brady moment: The Mets, the Mets, the Mets!

I observed the other day that maybe the one good thing about Gerry Hunsicker leaving the Astros organization is that whatever unholy alliances he forged with the New York Mets (hello, Dave Weathers!) and the Oakland As (looking good, Chad Harville!) were a thing of the past. I see now that I spoke too soon. Rumor has it that the Astros are trying to trade their best organizational prospect 2B Chris Burke for the Met's Mike Cameron, via Oakland, who will take Burke and give the Mets Eric Byrnes.

I confess I still cannot understand the appeal of Mike Cameron, who yes would do an excellent job of patrolling center field but would be one more anemic bat in a lineup full of anemic bats.

Mike Cameron (2004)   .231/.319/.379 *****CORRECTION, STATS GUY TELLS ME HIS SLG IS .479 AND POINTS OUT SHEA IS A PITCHER'S PARK; I STILL DON'T WANT MIKE CAMERON*****
Mike Cameron (career) .248/.340/.440

versus

Chris Burke (2004 AAA) .315/.396/.507

I mean, yes, those numbers will certainly drop off when he's playing full-time in the majors, but I would bet money, I really would, that Chris Burke is going to do better than .231/.319/.379. Did I mention that Chris Burke is seven years younger? Did I mention that Chris Burke is about $4 million cheaper, which used to be the sort of thing that mattered to the Astros?

I mean, yes, I know that the issue of which unlucky Astro gets stuck with CF duties is one of the great burning questions of spring training this year. But have you noticed that Houston has only really given a damn about CF since the four months of Carlos Beltran it got in 2004? I think the organization might be better served by not thinking of Carlos Beltran as the model for what it expects from a center fielder, but instead consider some of the ungainly sluggards who have been hauling their asses around there for the last few seasons. Craig Biggio, of course, but also Lance Berkman, who was enthusiastic but only occasionally astonishing.

I mean, you don't think you can get at least Biggio-esque defense from Jason Lane in CF?

Goddamn you, New York Mets. I mean it.

You can't hear it on the radio

Here is how you can tell baseball season is getting close: I just spent 20 minutes listening to Will Carroll getting interviewed on 740 AM. Mostly, he talked about Jose Canseco and steroids and his upcoming book, but he did manage to spend several minutes elaborating on his team health report for the 2005 Astros that my colleague Rafe referred to earlier. He admitted that Andy Pettitte seems to be making a good recovery from last year's elbow surgery (for what it's worth, Pettitte was throwing off the mound today in Florida) but speculated that last year's elbow problem was just a symptom of a larger, more threatening elbow and/or shoulder problem. The KTRH announcer pointed out that both Billy Wagner and Jason Schmidt had similar surgeries and came back to pitch spectacularly the next season; this is what I like to hear.

Carroll also elaborated on his jinx on Brandon Backe, citing Backe's relative lack of innings in previous seasons and the apparent connection between converted position players and pitching injuries.

Whenever Carroll discusses the Astros, I always hear this nagging voice in my head that reminds me he's a Cubs fan. I can't shake the sense that this slants his perspective on goings-on in the Houston organization. I'm sure that the Astros have some injuries in their future -- no one but the 2004 Cardinals seem to escape those -- but I'm sure it's not as dire as he makes it sound.

...

The most exciting thing Carroll had to say, I'm pleased to report, is that Baseball Prospectus 2005 is in the warehouses and that Amazon is ready to ship at any moment. Amazon is still saying Feb. 26, but I'm hopeful, I really am.

...

Note to Mets haters. Yes, Bill, I have heard that Shea Stadium is indeed a toilet. And worse! How could I forget 1986 and the 16-inning game? Probably because the Astros weren't my Astros yet. But in any case, let's make those reasons to dislike the Mets an even dozen.

Upon perusing the Google searches that brought you here

No, I cannot tell you Roy Oswalt's home address or whether Roger Clemens likes to fuck girls or even who the artist is that performs Brad Lidge's goofy theme song, but man, if you are searching for 10 reasons to dislike the Mets, you are in the right place.

01. They get players like Richard Hidalgo from the Astros, who goes on to hit twice as many home runs (8) in his first two weeks as a Met as he did in the previous 2-1/2 months as an Astro. What do we get in return? Broke-ass David Weathers and his 4.78 ERA.

02. Carlos Beltran, who'd rather get $119 million from a lousy team than $105 million from a pretty good one.

03. Cliff Floyd thinks Roy Oswalt nailed him in the kidneys on purpose. Listen, Cliff Floyd. When Roy Oswalt hits you on purpose, you stay hit. Sit down.

04. The game that ruined the Astros for me for close to three months in 2004. Bottom of the ninth, two outs. With an 1-2 count, Octavio Dotel gives up a home run to Mike Piazza, tying the game. I sit there for four more innings before the Astros lose. Who gave up the winning run, another homer? Brandon Backe. I'm just saying.   

05. Every season, I think the Mets' free-spending ways have finally made them a better team, and I pick them to win the NL East in the office pool. Year after year, they let me down, and I'm left buying someone else's lunch.

06. No one looks good in orange.

07. Mets fans are just Yankees fans, minus the actual team performance that earns one the right to be a braying jackass. (See practically any thread, Baseball Think Factory.)

08. Robbed the Cubs of a playoff berth in 1969. I mean, that doesn't bother me personally, but it really pisses off some people I hold in high regard. So fuck you, Miracle Mets.

09. Signed Pedro Martinez, setting up a chain-reaction pitching shortage in Boston that led to their acquisition of Wade Miller, who seems to think I didn't love him enough to keep him around. (From the Boston Globe: "They didn't want to take a chance with it. They made their decision so I had to make my decision.")

10. Traded their best pitching prospect Scott Kazmir for nonentity Victor Zambrano last July, when the team was in fourth place and 5 games under .500. I'm sorry, that was just really pretty stupid.

Tell me all the things that I want to hear

Here's a Valentine's Day tip, ladies. There is nothing like $16.9 million to get a man to say the things you want to hear, is there? In fact, Roy Oswalt was so moved by his new contract that he apparently couldn't keep from talking about himself in the third person.

"To give me a two-year contract when I don't have to have a two-year contract for two more years, three more years, it means a lot to the player."

The Houston Chronicle seems to interpret these remarks as a promise from Roy O that he is going to stay with us forever. I am a little more temperate. I believe that he is going to stay with us for at least another three years.

Right now, though, I will take three years without complaint.

Also of note is Oswalt's characterization of Drayton McLane and himself as "country people." I don't know what exactly that phrase signifies to Oswalt, but it has me thinking of that Flannery O'Connor story about the Bible salesman who steals a girl's wooden leg while they are canoodling in a barn.

"Aren't you," she murmured, "aren't you just good country people?"

The boy cocked his head. He looked as if he were just beginning to understand that she might be trying to insult him. "Yeah," he said, curling his lip slightly, "but it ain't held me back none."

Opening Day tickets are now on sale.

throws like a girl has now purchased her tickets for Opening Day -- they're nice! Upper deck, behind home plate, on the aisle as she prefers. She thanks you for your cooperation and urges you to now satisfy all your ticket-buying desires.

And in other happy news, the Astros have locked up Roy Oswalt with a two-year, $16.9 million contract, with which I think we are all pleased. Please note that Oswalt is a team player who is willing to give the Astros payroll flexibility by only taking $5.9 million of that this year. I am sure this will be a terrific hardship: what a swell guy.

Less felicitously, there was also a long article in the Chronicle this morning about the veteran leadership of Brad Ausmus (who gave the Astros payroll flexibility in 2004 and will therefore be getting $3 million this season for his useless bat and perfect, wavy brown hair), but I am feeling too good about my tickets, so I am not even going to link it.

Pitchers and catchers in six days, people. SIX DAYS! Even Jim Molony's prediction that the Astros will come in third in the NL Central isn't going to bring me down.

Schadenfreude takes a holiday

Readers of this space are well aware that my fondness for former Astro RHP Wade Miller lacks all objectivity, and so it was with mixed feelings that I read this report on his current status. The Boston Globe reports that Miller is still building arm strength, and it will be at least two more weeks before he's throwing at 180 feet. Until he does, there is no way to tell whether his rotator cuff is sufficiently healed for him to pitch this season. But the way Miller talks about his situation ("I have my doubts" he says), coupled with the cautious remarks of the Red Sox trainer overseeing his rehab, makes me wonder.

I think the influence of Larry Dierker -- whose own pitching career was ended prematurely at age 32 because of arm troubles -- still dominates the Astros' attitude toward managing pitcher injuries. Under his replacement Jimy Williams, it was rare for any starter to throw a complete game (I can think of two during his tenure, one each in 2003 and 2004). At the same time, Roy Oswalt rushed back from groin rehab three times in 2003, only to keep re-injuring himself. Wade Miller played through the end of 2003 with "dead arm" and now admits that his attempt to come back in August and September of 2004 probably significantly set back his recovery. I'm personally guilty of thinking Andy Pettitte is less of a ballplayer because of his willingness to go to the DL at the first sign of trouble.

It's worth noting that Pettitte's odds for 2005 are looking better than Wade Miller's, though it might still be May before he's ready to go.

Sadly, it looks more likely today that the Astros made the right decision when they opted to pass on Miller last December. As an Astros fan, I should feel good about this. As a Wade Miller fan, though, it breaks my heart.

Phew.

Crisis averted! Astros sign Redding to one-year deal.

He gets $750,000, or $175,000 more than the Astros would likely have had to pay in arbitration. I'm going to do us all a favor and not speculate on the many things that the organization could have bought for $175,000 that would have been more valuable than Tim Redding.

Still, this will give all my bitching about $4 bottled water a tone of righteous indignation that I've lately been lacking.