I am thinking that I need to follow the lead of our Department of Homeland Security and perhaps issue daily updates and color codings to track the average level of baseball despair round throws like a girl headquarters. Yes, it is true, as the Houston Chronicle helpfully noted this morning, that the Astros have given up 40 runs in their last three outings. Yes, it is also true that the lion's share of those runs were given up by pitchers that I never particularly wanted to see in Houston come April anyway (I am looking at you, Dave Burba, and believe me if I had the power to set things on fire with my eyes, you'd be in big trouble). The Houston Chronicle also helpfully points out that five of the eight runs that Burba gave up were unearned, as they followed a Craig Biggio error at second base. Which has me shrieking CRAIG BIGGIO ON SECOND BASE? SECOND BASE?
But I digress. Thankfully, there was a perspective-inducing article on the meaninglessness of spring training stats by BPro's Nate Silver in the NY Sun today:
Between the muddy fields of Florida, the dry air of Arizona, the splits quad games, the pitchers' raw arms, the preponderance of rookies, and the celebrity cameos, the Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues rarely provide an accurate picture of where a team is going. Last season, for example, four teams - Minnesota, Seattle, Montreal, and Milwaukee - finished with a .600 record or better in the spring. The Twins went on to reach the playoffs; the other three combined for a 197-288 regular-season record.
Silver then goes on to imply that you could make a more accurate assessment of a player's potential by looking at BPro's Pecota projections than you could by watching a month's worth of March games ("Had the Yankees consulted the players' history, they might have inserted Cairo in the starting spot right away - according to Baseball Prospectus's Pecota system, which projects a player's performance based on his career statistics") but I'm not going to let this unsolicited sales message for Baseball Prospectus 2005 keep me from believing that all is not lost, all is not lost, all is not yet lost.
...
So! In that spirit, let's count our Astros blessings.
Andy Pettitte threw a successful three innings in a simulated game. He's up to 51 pitches now, and is now throwing a variety of pitches. And he might pitch his first "real" preseason game this weekend, possibly against the Yankees. I always enjoy watching pitchers face their old teams (on Monday, the Astros faced the Phillies and Billy Wagner, who got a ninth-inning win off his former teammates, all the while complaining bitterly that Jeff Bagwell didn't bother to make the trip). That said, if the Astros' recent performance is any indication, they are going to lose lose lose.
Roy Oswalt has been stellar. Of course he's only thrown two innings so far, but he was unhittable! What other Astros pitcher can make the same claim? Well, okay, Roger Clemens can. And, sure, Russ Springer. And, um, P. Norton, whoever that is. Plus spring training stats are, as we established, meaningless.
The best part of Oswalt's spring so far is the growing realization that he's kind of an asshole. (Says Cubs Fan: No shit.)
"The soft-spoken quality belies the fact that he has an edge to him,"
[Phil] Garner says. "It's what we would call in Tennessee, a 'back-country
edge.' It's almost like you don't trust anybody that you don't call a
homeboy from down the street that you grew up with.
But I'll tell you, he is a competitor."
Oswalt won me over in the first week of training, when he went out of his way to explain that the reason he gave up three runs in one inning of work was because he was working on a new pitch, goddamn it.
"It's just work. That's all it's for."
"I was working on a pitch, and I kept throwing it up into the zone. We got through it."
"The good thing about spring training is that you get to work on a
pitch, and that's what it's for ... A lot of guys say, 'Aw, he
got lit up in spring training,' or, 'A hitter only hit .100.' Who cares?"
"Once you establish that you compete at a higher level, you get to come into spring training and work on a certain pitch."
So obviously getting hit up in spring training doesn't bother him at all. Except that obviously that Brian McTaggart kept making a big deal out of it. Sheesh.
Hits are coming from unlikely sources. Brad Ausmus went 3-for-3 as a DH in his first appearance of the preseason. Jason Lane and Luke Scott have multiple hits and a home run apiece. And Willy Tavares, who everyone dreams of in CF but for his reputedly crappy bat, has four hits, including a double.
I know, I know. Spring stats are for suckers. I mean, Brad Ausmus has stolen a freaking base, people. Like the ads for mutual funds say, past performance is no indicator of future results.
That's what is keeping me going today. Either the spring stats are meaningless, so it doesn't matter that the Astros have only a single win in a week of play. Or we are on the verge of a Brad Ausmus renaissance. Or a naissance, anyway.