Salon's King Kaufman weighed in with his National League picks for the season yesterday, and to save you the subscription fees or the ad views, I'll just go ahead and post his remarks about the Astros here:
The Astros are the other team that's been at the top of this division in recent years, but I think their moment has passed. They still have pitching that will take them a long way. Roger Clemens will still be winning Cy Youngs when he's 90, and Roy Oswalt and Andy Pettitte can chuck the ol' spheroid as well. Brad Lidge is a pretty good closer.
But this club lost Kent and Carlos Beltran over the offseason. Jeff Bagwell is just a smoldering husk of what he used to be. Craig Biggio seemed to halt his long, slow slide last year at age 38, and the move from the outfield back to second base at least returns him to a position he can actually play at a professional level. But he's not what he was either. Lance Berkman will start the season on the disabled list, still healing a knee he hurt playing flag football.
The starters will keep them in the wild-card mix, but nothing more.
It hurts, sure, but the only part I can argue with is that Roy Oswalt should not be consigned to "Oh, he's not bad, either" status. Now that the novelty of the National League has worn off a little for Clemens, I can see Oswalt putting up superior numbers this season.
Kaufman picked Chicago to win the NL Central, delighting Cubs Fan especially by citing Corey Patterson's offensive prowess. I take heart in his admission that he hasn't picked more than two of the six division winners in the last four seasons. Even I'm better than that, and I picked the Mets to win the East three years running.
Since the Astros have now returned to Houston and Spring Training is all but over, I'll just go ahead and list my own abbreviated picks for 2005. There is nothing to see here. I make no bold predictions. This year, I'm playing to win in the office pool.
NL West: Los Angeles
NL Central: St. Louis
NL East: Atlanta Resistance is futile!
NL Wild Card: Chicago
AL West: Anaheim
AL Central: Minnesota
AL East: Boston
AL Wild Card: New York
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I have an admission to make. This is the only time you'll hear me say this, I hope: I think the Astros can win the Wild Card. They have four strong starting pitchers if they stay healthy, and good options for the fifth. Luke Scott, Chris Burke* and Jason Lane may not be as good as Jeff Kent or Carlos Beltran, but I think they all have the potential to put up Ensberg-esque or better numbers, and there are worse things than a lineup of four guys that hit as well as Morgan Ensberg.
*Yes, I know that Chris Burke has to actually get put in the lineup in order to put up those numbers, and scuttlebutt has him functioning as a late-inning substitution for Biggio. I am hopeful that his clear superiority cannot be denied for long, unless the organization sends him back to AAA, where his offensive power, like Jason Lane's before him, would stay just a happy rumor for most fans. This is actually a case where defense could make the difference in who ultimately wins out at 2B. The casual observer might not see that big a difference between Biggio's .286 and Burke's .354 -- that's less than one extra hit in every 10 at-bats. But I'm willing to bet that the casual observer will be able to see an enormous difference between Biggio's diving misses and Burke's ability to turn a play.
Meanwhile, Brad Ausmus's average has dropped 120 points in the last two weeks. Get used to it.
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I didn't catch yesterday's final Florida game against the Atlanta Braves, but I was heartened to read that the Astros scored five runs off Atlanta's John Smoltz, who hadn't given up a single run in his previous 14 innings of Spring Training baseball. Roy Oswalt struck out five and gave up only one run (I presume he wasn't working on any pitches yesterday), and I will not mind at all if this team finally managed to eradicate all that bad postseason juju from and can go on to beat the Braves on a regular basis.
just found your blog - enjoyed what I've seen so far. I'm a Pirates fan (insert chuckle or long "ahhh"). I have to say I don't think the Astros will be able to eak out a wild card berth, I just think they've lost too many pieces. I do agree with you about Biggio being perhaps the most underrated players of the 90s. 'Stros should get at least 2 HOFers - Biggio & Bagwell. Keep up the good work and good luck this season
Posted by: krusecontrol | April 01, 2005 at 02:32 PM
I agree with Throws Like A Girl about the wild card. It is well within reach. I'll go a step further and say that the Cardinals and Cubs can be taken. We have so many questions about the Astros we forget that these teams also have problems.
The Cardinals may resemble an out patient clinic by June. Try to say this. "A healthy Larry Walker." Can't be done. Sanders and Walker are on the outfield corners and Jim Edmonds is one ESPN highlight catch away from the DL.
David Eckstein is 5'8" and about 170 pounds. Sometime about July 4th someone will notice a large pool of moisture on the 120 degree playing surface in St. Louis. It will be all that is left of Eckstein. And Grudzielanek? The 282nd best NL player according to SI. Morris is hurt, Mulder is on a slide from injuries and Marquis is pitching over his head. Tony LaRussa? The only man in America who claims not to have known about McGwire on steroids will spend the year dogged with that question every town they pull into.
Then we have the dreaded Cubs. If you fear them, say to yourself "Ryan Dempster, starting pitcher." Jeromy Burnitiz is in right and Todd Hollandsworth in left. 2/3 of the world is covered in water. Corey Patterson will have to cover the rest in Chicago.
LaTroy Hawkins is the Cubs closer. It's like having Barney Fife as an ordinance disposal man. You get into their bullpen and you start finding Joe Borowski and Jon Leicester. As the Rolling Stones said, "I see people turn their heads and quickly look away..." Greg Maddux and Mark Prior had ERA's over 4 last year. Wood is hurting, which is like saying that it's a day of the week that ends in "Y".
The Astros will win their division. Mark it down.
Posted by: Dudley Bokoski | April 02, 2005 at 10:38 AM